拜登预计伊朗迟早会攻击以色列；马斯克预测到2026年底，人工智能将“比最聪明的人还聪明”

President Joe Biden told reporters at the White House Friday that he expects Iran will attack Israel "sooner than later."

美国总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）周五在白宫对记者透露，他估计伊朗将“迟早”对以色列动员冲击。

"I don't want to get into secure information but my expectation is sooner than later," Biden said to reporters when asked how imminent an Iranian attack on Israel would be.

“我不想透露秘要信息，但我估计伊朗迟早会对以色列动员冲击，” 当被问及伊朗对以色列的冲击是否迫在眉睫时，拜登对记者说。

Asked what his message to Iran is right now, the president said, "Don't."

在被问及他如今想对伊朗传达什么信息时，总统透露：“不要轻举妄动。”

In response to more shouted questions from reporters in the room, including CNN's MJ Lee asking if American troops were at risk – Biden returned to the podium and said that the United States is "devoted" to the defense of Israel.

面临记者们更多的喊问， 包罗美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的记者MJ Lee扣问美国戎行是否面临风险，拜登回到演讲台前说， 美国“致力于”守卫以色列。

"We are devoted to the defense of Israel. We will support Israel we will help defend Israel and Iran will not succeed," Biden said.

“我们致力于守卫以色列。我们将支撑以色列，我们将匡助守卫以色列，伊朗不会成功，”拜登说。

The US has been on high alert for a significant Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel in recent days as fears grow of a wider regional war.

近日，因为人们越来越担心爆发更大规模的区域战争，美国一向处于高度警觉状况，以防伊朗对以色列动员大规模报复性冲击。

There remains a "real," "credible" and "viable" threat of Iran launching strikes, the White House said Friday, following Israel's attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria last week that killed three Iranian generals.

白宫周五透露，在以色列上周对叙利亚境内伊朗交际举措动员袭击、造成三名伊朗将领灭亡之后， 伊朗动员袭击的威胁“真实”、“可托”且“可行”。

Biden, who warned this week that Iran was threatening a "significant attack" on Israel, has been receiving constant updates on the situation from his national security team.

拜登本周警告称，伊朗正威胁对以色列动员“重大冲击”， 并已从其国度平安团队那边络续收到有关此事的最新新闻。

The US and several other countries, including Britain and France, issued new travel guidelines for government employees in Israel as the Iranian threat loomed.

跟着伊朗威胁的切近，美国和包罗英国、法国在内的几个国度 已经向驻以色列大使馆发布了紧要预警。

"We're watching this very, very closely," said John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman, who declined to provide information about the expected timing of the threat.

“我们正在非常、非常亲切地存眷此事，”国度平安..谈话人约翰·柯比（John Kirby）说， 他拒绝透露有关威胁估计发生时间的任何信息。

The US will attempt to intercept any weapons launched at Israel if it's feasible to do so, two US officials told CNN, an indication of the level of ongoing cooperation between the two militaries.

两名美国官员敷陈CNN，若是前提许可，美国将试图阻挡任何射向以色列的兵器， 这表明两国戎行之间的合作仍在持续。

US Navy forces in the Red Sea have previously intercepted long-range missiles launched from the Houthis in Yemen towards Israel. US forces in Iraq and Syria could also potentially intercept drones and rockets targeting northern Israel, depending on the location from which they're launched.

此前，驻红海的美国水师曾阻挡了也门胡塞武装向以色列发射的长途导弹。凭据发射所在的分歧，驻伊拉克和叙利亚的美国戎行也或者有能力 阻挡对准以色列北部的无人机和火箭弹。

The Defense Department is also moving additional assets to the Middle East region "to bolster regional deterrence efforts and increase force protection for US forces," a US defense official told CNN, as Israel and the US brace for a potential Iranian attack.

据美国国防部一名官员敷陈CNN，美国国防部还在向中东区域调遣更多军力， “以增强区域威慑力度，增加对美军的军队珍爱”，因为以色列和美国正在为或者发生的伊朗袭击做预备。

The Pentagon has been working specifically to bolster air defenses for the US troops stationed in Iraq and Syria who came under attack by Iran-backed proxy forces over 100 times between October and February. In January, three US service members were killed when a drone got through US air defenses at the Tower 22 base in Jordan.

五角大楼一向在起劲增强驻伊拉克和叙利亚美军的防空力量。客岁10月至本年2月时代，这些美军军队遭到伊朗支撑的代理武装力量跨越100次的袭击。本年1月，一架无人机冲破了美国设在约旦第22号塔基地的防空系统，造成三名美军士兵灭亡。

The US is not anticipating that Iran or its proxies will attack US forces as part of its retaliation but is moving the assets just in case.

美国并不认为伊朗或其代理武装会在报复动作中冲击美军，但美国仍在调动资产以防万一。

"It would be imprudent if we didn't take a look at our own posture in the region to make sure that we're properly prepared," Kirby said.

“若是我们不审视一下我们在该区域的情形，以确保我们已做好充裕预备，那将是不明智的，”柯比说。

CNN reported last week that the US was on high alert and actively preparing for an attack by Iran targeting Israeli or American assets in the region. Officials said such an attack could come within the week.

CNN上周报道，美国高度警觉，正在积极预备应对伊朗针对以色列或美国在该区域资产的袭击。官员们透露，此类袭击或者会在本周内发生。

The US has observed Iran moving military assets around internally, including drones and cruise missiles, signaling that it is possibly preparing to attack Israeli targets from inside its own territory, according to two people familiar with US intelligence. One of the people said that the US had observed Iran readying as many as 100 cruise missiles.

据两位认识美国谍报的人士透露， 美国视察到伊朗正在国内移动军事资产，包罗无人机和巡航导弹， 这表明伊朗或者正在预备从其本国境内对以色列方针动员冲击。个中一人透露，美国已视察到伊朗预备了多达100枚巡航导弹。

It is not clear whether Iran is preparing to strike from its soil as part of an initial attack, or if it is posturing to try to deter Israel or the US from conducting a possible counter strike on its territory.

今朝尚不清楚伊朗是否预备从其本土动员首轮冲击， 或许试图阻止以色列或美国对其疆域进行或者的还击。

Sources say Iran wary of dramatic escalation

新闻人士称伊朗对事态升级持郑重立场

CNN reported earlier this week that an Iranian attack on Israel would likely be carried out by Iranian proxy forces in the region rather than by Iran directly, according to two people familiar with US intelligence on the matter.

CNN本周早些时候报道，据两位认识美国谍报的人士透露，伊朗对以色列的袭击或者由伊朗在该区域的代理武装力量实施， 而非伊朗直接动作。

Tehran is wary of a dramatic escalation in the fighting, the sources said, and does not want to give the US or its allies an excuse to attack Iran directly.

新闻人士称，德黑兰方面郑重避免事态猛烈升级， 不想给美国或其盟友供应直接冲击伊朗的托言。

The sources said Iran and its proxy militia groups do not appear poised to attack US troops or other assets in the region, but they noted that Iran does not have perfect command and control over all its proxy forces, so the possibility of an attack on US assets cannot be completely ruled out.

新闻人士透露，伊朗及其代理武装组织似乎并未预备袭击驻该区域的美军或其他美军资产， 但他们指出，伊朗无法完全掌控其所有代理武装力量， 是以无法完全清扫袭击美军资产的或者性。

The sources told CNN that US intelligence assesses that Iran has urged several of its proxy militia groups to simultaneously launch a large-scale attack against Israel, using drones and missiles, and that they could attack as soon as this week.

新闻人士敷陈CNN，美国谍报部门评估认为，伊朗已催促其多个代理武装组织 同时用无人机和导弹对以色列动员大规模袭击，袭击或者最快于本周发生。

"The threat is very clear and credible," said one of the sources. "They have put the pieces in place to conduct the attack now. Just waiting for the right time."

“威胁非常明确且可托，”个中一位新闻人士说。“他们如今已做好动员袭击的预备， 只待合适时机。”

Biden spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, about the threat of an Iranian attack during a telephone call last week.

拜登上周在与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的德律攀谈中，商议了伊朗袭击的威胁。

A direct strike on Israel by Iran is one of the worst-case scenarios the Biden administration is bracing for, as it would guarantee rapid escalation of an already tumultuous situation in the Middle East. Such a strike could lead to the Israel-Hamas war broadening into a wider, regional conflict – something Biden has long sought to avoid.

伊朗直接对以色列动员袭击是拜登当局最担心的最坏情形之一， 因为这必将使中东区域已经动荡不安的事态敏捷升级。如许的袭击或者导致以色列与哈马斯之间的战争扩大为更普遍的区域辩说——这是拜登历久以来一向起劲避免的。

Biden is receiving briefings multiple times a day on the situation, Kirby said.

柯比透露，拜登天天多次听取关于该事态的简报。

Kirby said Friday that US officials were in "constant communication" with their Israeli counterparts about the matter and that steps were underway to ensure Israel is able to defend itself.

柯比周五透露，美国官员正在与以色列同业就此事进行“持续沟通”， 并正在接纳办法确保以色列可以守卫本身。

"We are certainly mindful of a very public and what we consider to be a very credible threat made by Iran in terms of potential attacks on Israel," Kirby said Friday.

柯比周五透露：“我们当然意识到伊朗公开提出的、我们认为非常可托的威胁， 即或者对以色列动员袭击。”

He pointed to a visit to Israel on Friday by US Central Command chief Gen. Erik Kurilla to have "those conversations directly with his IDF counterparts."

他提到，美国中央司令部司令埃里克·库里拉将军周五接见了以色列， 以便“直接与以色各国防军的同业进行对话”。

Kurilla's trip to Israel was moved up because of the expectation of an Iranian response to Israel's targeting of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria last week.

因为估计伊朗会对以色列上周袭击叙利亚大马士革的伊朗领事馆一事作出回应， 库里拉将军对以色列的接见提前了。

There have also been a number of conversations in which US officials have urged Israel not to escalate the situation in retaliating against Iran, according to one of the US officials said.

据一名美国官员透露， 美国官员已多次催促以色列不要在对伊朗报复时升级事态。

Separately, US officials were frustrated with their Israeli counterparts over the lack of information Israel shared prior to carrying out the strike in Damascus last week, sources told CNN. Israel only informed a US official when its planes were already in the air en route to Syria, another US official said.

此外，美国官员对他们的以色列同业感应不满， 因为以色列在上周对大马士革动员袭击前没有供应任何信息。另一名美国官员透露，以色列直到飞机已经在飞往叙利亚的途中才通知了一名美国官员。

"We were not aware that Israel was going to carry out this airstrike in advance," the official said. "Minutes before it happened and when Israeli planes were already in the air, Israel reached out to a U.S. official to say they were in the process of conducting a strike in Syria. It did not include any details on who they were targeting or where it would be conducted, and the strike was already underway before word could be passed through the U.S. government."

“我们事先并不知道以色列会动员此次空袭，”这名官员说。“就在袭击发生前的几分钟，以色列飞机已经升空，以色列才关联一名美国官员， 称他们正在叙利亚动员袭击。通知中没有包罗任何干于方针是谁或袭击将在哪里进行的细节， 并且袭击已经起头， 新闻还将来得及经由美国当局传开。”

Diplomatic pressure

交际压力

Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with the foreign ministers of Turkey, China and Saudi Arabia to urge them to press Iran not to escalate the conflict in the Middle East after threats made by Iran against Israel, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Thursday.

在伊朗对以色列发出威胁后，美国..谈话人马修·米勒周四透露， 国务卿安东尼·布林肯与土耳其、中国和沙特..的交际部长通话， 催促他们向伊朗施压，不要让中东的辩说升级。

Miller said the US has also "engaged with European allies and partners over the past few days" to deliver a similar message on Iran. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron have both spoken to the Iranian foreign minister in recent days.

米勒透露，美国还“在曩昔几天里与欧洲盟友和合作伙伴进行了接触”，向伊朗传达了雷同的信息。德国交际部长安娜莱娜·贝尔伯克和英国交际大臣戴维·卡梅伦近日都与伊朗外长进行了攀谈。

Blinken "has been making clear to every country that has any semblance of a relationship with Iran that it is in their interest to use that relationship to send a message to Iran that they should not escalate this conflict. But I will let those countries speak for themselves about what action they may or may not take," Miller said.

米勒透露：“布林肯已向与伊朗有任何雷同关系的每个国度明确透露，行使这种关系向伊朗传达‘他们不该升级辩说’的信息相符他们的好处。不外，关于他们或者或弗成能接纳的动作，我会让这些国度自行阐述。”

The US State Department has restricted the travel of US government personnel in Israel in the wake of public threats against Israel by Iran.

伊朗公开威胁以色列后，美国..已限制美国当局人员在以色列的观光。

"Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya, and Even Yehuda), Jerusalem, and Be'er Sheva areas until further notice," a security alert posted by the US Embassy Thursday said, "U.S. government personnel are authorized to transit between these three areas for personal travel."

美国大使馆周四发布的平安警报称：“出于高度郑重，在另行通知之前，美国当局雇员及其家庭成员被限制在特拉维夫多半会区（包罗赫兹利亚、内坦亚 和埃文耶胡达）、耶路撒冷和贝尔谢巴区域之外进行小我观光。美国当局人员获准在这三个区域之间往返进行小我观光。”

"The security environment remains complex and can change quickly depending on the political situation and recent events," the alert noted.

警报指出：“平安情况依然复杂，或者会凭据政治形势和近期事件敏捷转变。”

France has advised its citizens to "absolutely refrain" from traveling to Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories due to the risk of "military escalation," the French Foreign Ministry said Friday.

法国交际部周五透露，因为存在“军事升级”的风险，法国已建议其公民“绝对不要”前去伊朗、黎巴嫩、 以色列和被占领的巴勒斯坦疆域。

The ministry added that families of diplomatic staff in the Iranian capital Tehran will be returned to France and civil servants will be banned from work missions to those countries and territories.

驻伊朗首都德黑兰的交际人员眷属将被送回法国，公务人员将被禁止前去这些国度和区域执行公务。

The French foreign minister issued the new recommendation following a crisis meeting on the region, the ministry said in a post on X.

法国交际部在X网站的一篇帖子中透露，法国交际部长在召开关于该区域的危机会议后，发布了新的建议。

The billionaire CEO behind Tesla and SpaceX has a history of making bold pronouncements.

特斯拉和SpaceX的亿万财主首席执行官老是揭橥一些展望将来的谈吐。

And this week, he reiterated his prediction that Artificial General Intelligence would soon be as smart as or smarter than a human.

本周，他重申了本身的展望，即通用人工智能（AGI）很快就会像人类一般伶俐，甚至跨越人类。

While most AI excels at specific tasks, AGI attempts to tackle challenges like humans, with reasoning and cognition.

固然大多数人工智能在特定义务上示意超卓，但通用人工智能（AGI）试图像人类一般，经由推理和认知来应对挑战。

Progress in AI has been impressive, but AGI is a level of artificial intelligence we haven't reached yet.

人工智能的成长速度很快，但通用人工智能（AGI）是我们尚未达到的人工智能水平。

Musk, who has long been vocal about AI, said this would be achieved within the next two years.

马斯克一向对人工智能持有独到看法，他认为这一冲破将在将来两年内实现。

"If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years," he told Norway wealth fund CEO Nicolai Tangen during an interview this week.

“若是你将通用人工智能（AGI）界说为比最伶俐的人类还要伶俐，我认为这或者会在来岁、将来两年内实现，” 他在本周接管挪威主权财富基金首席执行官尼古拉·唐根采访时说道。

Musk also told Tangen that the next version of Grok, the AI chatbot from his xAI startup, was to be trained by May.

马斯克还敷陈唐根，他的人工智能初创公司xAI的聊天机械人Grok的下一个版本将在5月进步行练习。

Musk founded xAI last year as a rival to OpenAI, the company behind the popular ChatGPT for which Musk served as an initial member on its board of directors.

马斯克客岁创立了xAI，以与OpenAI睁开竞争， OpenAI是热点聊天机械人ChatGPT背后的公司，马斯克最初是其董事会成员之一。

Musk's prediction is not new – and unsurprisingly has been met with mixed reactions from experts in the field of AI.

马斯克的这一展望早已不是新颖事，但正如人人所预料的那样，人工智能范畴的专家对此展望揭橥了分歧的见解。

Christian Rebernik, founder and Co-CEO at Tomorrow University of Applied Sciences said, "Musk's prediction that AI will surpass human intelligence rings true, particularly in the light of the recent passing of the EU's Artificial Intelligence Act, confirming AI's permanence.

明日应用科学大学创始人兼联席首席执行官克里斯蒂安·雷伯尼克透露：“马斯克关于人工智能将超越人类智能的展望是可托的， 稀奇是在欧盟《人工智能法案》比来获得经由后，这一展望加倍真实，该法案确认了人工智能的永远性地位。

"It's crucial government bodies and businesses are mindful about its adoption, and ways of working alongside it."

“当局机构和企业在使用人工智能时，以及在与人工智能协同工作时，都必需连结警醒。”

Meanwhile, researchers from McKinsey noted in a blog post, "We're still far from reaching a point where AI tools can understand, communicate, and act with the same nuance and sensitivity of a human—and, critically, understand the meaning behind it."

与此同时，麦肯锡的研究人员在博客文章中指出：“我们距离人工智能对象可以像人类一般懂得、交流和动作， 以及懂得其背后的意义这一时刻，还有很长的路要走。”

They added that most researchers and academics believe we are decades away from realizing AGI.

他们增补说，大多数研究人员和学者都认为，实现通用人工智能还需要几十年。

And some predict that AGI won't even be realized this century (or ever).

甚至有人展望，通用人工智能本世纪（或永远）都不会实现。

Rodney Brooks, a roboticist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-founder of iRobot, believes AGI won't arrive until 2300, McKinsey reported.

麦肯锡报道称，麻省理工学院机械人专家、iRobot公司结合创始人罗德尼·布鲁克斯认为，通用人工智能要到2300年才会显现。

Experts in the field of AI weren't the only ones with opinions on Musk's recent quotes.

除了人工智能范畴的专家外，对于马斯克比来的谈吐，其他人也持有分歧的概念。

Social media platforms like X, formerly Twitter, quickly flooded with commentary.

X（前身为Twitter）等社交媒体..敏捷被相关谈论覆没。

"Elon Musk is an optimist. Good approach. I would take the same approach. It gets things done," one person wrote on X.

“埃隆·马斯克是个乐观主义者。这种立场很好。我也会接纳同样的立场。如许才能把事情做成。”有人在X..上写道。

"But even if AGI would come tomorrow, I would still give it a decade to have a meaningful impact on a common person's life. All technologies take time to affect the common person," they added.

“但即使通用人工智能来日就能显现，我照样认为它需要十年时间才能对通俗人的生活发生有意义的影响。所有手艺都需要时间来影响通俗人。”他们增补道。

"AGI will be achieved internally first by several companies and nations, and kept from public eyes for years," another speculated.

“通用人工智能将首先由几家公司和国度内部实现，并在将来几年内不被公家所知。”另一人猜测道。

"It all depends on your definition of AGI. If you told me 10 years ago we would be able to ask something called 'ChatGPT' anything in the world and it could answer in seconds, I would think that's a pretty intelligent system," another commented.

“这一切都取决于你对通用人工智能的界说。若是你十年前敷陈我，我们可以向一个名为‘ChatGPT’的器材提出生界上的任何问题，它都能在几秒钟内回覆， 我会认为那是一个非常智能的系统。”又有人谈论道。

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